Volatility grips global currencies

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 1.3208 – 3 April/2025 high – Strong
• R1 1.2934 – 7 April high – Medium
• S1 1.2708 –  7 April low – Medium
• S2 1.2679 – 4 March low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound came under quite a bit of pressure on Monday on the back of uncertainty around the fallout from China's retaliatory tariffs. Markets have now priced an additional 30 basis points of cuts from the BoE in the first week of April alone, while eyeing an additional 80 basis points of rate cuts by year end. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from ECB speak, Canada Ivey PMIs, and some Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overview

There are signs of a meaningful top in place after the market put in a multi-year high in 2024. At this point, the door is now open for a deeper setback towards the 140 area.

• R2 149.28 – 3 April high – Medium
• R1 148.15 – 7 April high – Medium
• S1 144.55 – 4 April/2025 low – Medium
• S2 144.00 – Figure – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overview

According to Treasury Secretary Bessent, Japan PM Ishiba arranged a highly productive call with President Trump, reportedly securing Japan a top spot among countries awaiting negotiations with the United States. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from ECB speak, Canada Ivey PMIs, and some Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.5500 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6332 – 4 April high – Medium
• R2 0.6187 – 4 March low – Medium
• S1 0.5932 – 7 April/2025 low – Strong
• S2 0.5900 – Figure – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar has been getting some welcome relief early Tuesday as the market tries to look for the worst to the out of the way with respect to fallout from US tariffs. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty out there and a rate cut from the RBA in May followed by 3 more cuts thereafter is looking increasingly likely. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from ECB speak, Canada Ivey PMIs, and some Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in at the 1.5000 psychological barrier. Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 1.4000.

• R2 1.4416 – 1 April high – Strong
• R1 1.4319 – 3 April high – Medium
• S1 1.4151 – 14 April low – Medium
• S2 1.4027 – 3 April/2025 low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has managed to steady itself a bit on the back of a rebound in oil prices and comments from PM Carney that the US is driving itself into recession. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from ECB speak, Canada Ivey PMIs, and some Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5469 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.5798 – 4 April high – Medium
• R1 0.5648 – 31 March low – Medium
• S1 0.5516 – 3 February low – Medium
• S2 0.5506 – 7 April/2025 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar has managed to find some bids on Tuesday thus far, with the currency following along with a period of relief in risk assets. Still overall, there continues to be plenty of uncertainty around the state of global trade, which could the Kiwi rate well offered into rallies. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from ECB speak, Canada Ivey PMIs, and some Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The market has come back down to test a major previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2022 high. Look for additional setbacks to be limited from here in favor of the formation of the next major higher low and a bullish continuation.

• R2 5398– 4 April high – Strong
• R1 5247 – 7 April high – Medium
• S1 4800 – Previous Resistance 2022/2025 low – Strong
• S2 4700 – Round number – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Going forward, it will be important to keep an eye on Trump trade policies, inflation, bigger picture economic data and the Fed policy outlook. Any of these variables are capable of triggering a massive turnaround in the outlook for the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension towards 3500. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2800 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 3200 – Round Number – Medium
• R1 3168 – 3 April/Record high – Medium
• S1 2956 – 7 April low – Medium
• S2 2900 – Round number – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in recent months with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.