Big day of US data ahead of holiday

Next 24 hours: Talk of month end US Dollar selling

Today’s report: Big day of US data ahead of holiday

The market has absorbed the news around the Trump tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada and is starting to move past it, while feeling better about an easing in geopolitical tensions. This has translated to some Dollar selling into Wednesday along with an ongoing bid in US equities.

Wake-up call

Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights

Choose pair:

EURUSD – technical overview

The Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a major bounce in the days ahead and the start to a push back towards the 2023 high at 1.1276. Only a monthly close below 1.0400 negates.

  • R2 1.0683 – 6 November low – Medium
  • R1 1.0610 - 20 November high – Medium
  • S1 1.0400 - Major range low – Strong
  • S2 1.0333 – 22 November/2024 low – Very Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overview

Odds for a larger 50-basis point rate cut from the ECB in December have come down and now sit below 30%. This means we should expect to see a smaller 25-basis point cut from the central bank. The news has been somewhat supportive of the Euro, though attempts to the topside have been offset on concern around Trump policies and the possibility the President-elect will soon make some tariff announcements relating to Europe. Key standouts on the calendar for the remainder of the day come from German consumer confidence, and a batch of pre-Thanksgiving holiday US reads in the form of initial jobless claims, durable goods, GDP, personal income and spending, core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and pending home sales.

EURUSD - Technical charts in detail

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2500 on a monthly close basis.

  • R2 1.2769 – 13 November low – Medium
  • R1 1.2715 – 20 November high –Medium
  • S1 1.2487 – 22 November low – Medium
  • S2 1.2446 – 9 May low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound is trading off recent lows worrying about the political climate in the UK, risk for Trump tariffs, and a wave of softer economic data, most recently in the form of CBI total sales and retail sales. Key standouts on the calendar for the remainder of the day come from German consumer confidence, and a batch of pre-Thanksgiving holiday US reads in the form of initial jobless claims, durable goods, GDP, personal income and spending, core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and pending home sales.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

  • R2 156.75 – 15 November high – Strong
  • R1 155.89 – 20 November high – Medium
  • S1 152.14 – 8 November low – Medium
  • S2 151.28 – 6 November low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Expectations the BOJ will raise rates at the December meeting have risen to their highest level in this cycle at 65%. There has also been growing pressure the central bank will be needing to act to respond to unwanted Dollar strength. Key standouts on the calendar for the remainder of the day come from German consumer confidence, and a batch of pre-Thanksgiving holiday US reads in the form of initial jobless claims, durable goods, GDP, personal income and spending, core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and pending home sales.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

  • R1 0.6688 – 7 November high – Strong
  • R2 0.6550 – 25 November high – Medium
  • S1 0.6434 –26 November low– Medium
  • S2 0.6400 – Figure – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar has held up well on Wednesday in the aftermath of a deceptive inflation release. While the headline number was a little softer, underlying inflation remained elevated and will remove the possibility for a rate cut in December. Meanwhile, Aussie construction data was also supportive after coming in well above forecast. Key standouts on the calendar for the remainder of the day come from German consumer confidence, and a batch of pre-Thanksgiving holiday US reads in the form of initial jobless claims, durable goods, GDP, personal income and spending, core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and pending home sales.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4500-1.5000 area, exposing a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

  • R2 1.4200 – Figure – Medium
  • R1 1.4179 – 26 November/2024 high – Medium
  • S1 1.3927 – 25 November low – Medium
  • S2 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has been slammed to its lowest level against the Buck since April 2020 after President-elect Trump said he would be imposing a 25% tariff on Canada. Key standouts on the calendar for the remainder of the day come from German consumer confidence, and a batch of pre-Thanksgiving holiday US reads in the form of initial jobless claims, durable goods, GDP, personal income and spending, core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and pending home sales.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

  • R2 0.6038 – 7 November high – Strong
  • R1 0.5948 – 13 November high – Medium
  • S1 0.5816 – 22 November low – Medium
  • S2 0.5797 – 26 November/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar is trading higher in the aftermath of the well telegraphed 50-basis point RBNZ rate cut earlier today. We've been seen a round of buying Kiwi on the fact, with a slightly less dovish central bank communication perhaps also factoring into the bid. Key standouts on the calendar for the remainder of the day come from German consumer confidence, and a batch of pre-Thanksgiving holiday US reads in the form of initial jobless claims, durable goods, GDP, personal income and spending, core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and pending home sales.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

  • R2 6100 – Round Number – Strong
  • R1 6035 – 27 November/Record high – Medium
  • S1 5838 – 19 November low – Medium
  • S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

The US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in the aftermath of the Trump election victory. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

  • R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
  • R1 2722 – 25 November high – Medium
  • S1 2537 – 14 November low – Medium
  • S2 2500 – Round Number – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

Peformance chart: 30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)

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