Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.647 | EURUSD 1.17712 | AUDUSD 0.72234 | NZDUSD 0.66605 | USDCAD 1.33056 | USDCHF 0.91459 | GBPUSD 1.2816 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.17774 | 1.1753
USDJPY 104.752 | 104.462
GBPUSD 1.28237 | 1.27997
USDCHF 0.91607 | 0.91443
AUDUSD 0.72341 | 0.71914
NZDUSD 0.66817 | 0.66542
USDCAD 1.33236 | 1.32989
EURCHF 1.07703 | 1.07604
EURGBP 0.91867 | 0.91770
EURJPY 123.271 | 122.869
For Today
- GBP: Another Tokyo Bank Holiday with the market moving through into the Tokyo session testing to the 1.2825 area before dipping and testing the 1.2800 level with a light breach before slowly returning through to the topside area for the move into the grey hour, light bids into the 1.2800 area with stronger bids appearing into the long term trend line around the 1.2765 area, with sentimental bids likely just through the area with limited bids then through the 1.2700 level and increasing on any attempt to dip through the level, topside offers light through the 1.2900 level with weak stops on a move through the level opening a return to the 1.3000 level and slightly stronger offers holding in the area.
- JPY: A quiet move through into the 104.70 area with early Bank holiday testing the 104.75 area before quickly dipping back to the 104.50 area for a quiet move through to the grey hour holding just off the low, Offers light through to the 105.50 level with some weak stops likely on a break through and opening the market through to the slightly stronger 106.00 area with stops on a break through the 106.20-30 area, offers remain into the 107.00-20 area with congestion likely to be mixed with weak stops on a break of the level and that congestion likely to continue on any move into the 107.60 area where stronger offers are likely to appear, maybe another round of stops before stronger offers then appearing through to the 108.00 level. Downside bids into the 104.20 light and then increasing on any dips to the 104.00 level and stronger stops through the 103.80 level, any break here opens the chance of a deeper move through to the 103.00 level before stronger bids start to appear with possible option related buyers.
- AUD: A quiet rise through into early Tokyo testing through to the 0.7235 level before quickly dipping back and eventually pushing through to towards in the 0.7190 area before bouncing back and slowly holding around the opening 0.7225 area for the grey hour, Downside bids remain through to the 0.7180 level with weak stops on a move through the level and then increasing support through to the 0.7150 area and 0.7100 level likely to be the key reversal area for a deeper move, topside offers light through to the 0.7250 area and then increasing on any move beyond the 73 cents and increasing into the 0.7350 area before weak stops appear and the 74 cents level while likely to have strong offers becomes vulnerable.
- EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro with the market held in a very tight range from the opening around the 1.1770 area through to the low in early Tokyo around the 1.1755 area before recovering for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids into the key 1.1700 level and likely to see strong stops on a break through the level and through the 1.1680 area opening the downside through to the 1.1480-1.1500 level in the short term, topside offers light through the congested 1.1800 area and the market then building above the 1.1860 area and through into the 1.1900 level with weak stops through the level but limited stops likely to leave the topside vulnerable to reversals through the area.
Overnight News
USD:
Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death brings new uncertainty to the battle over voting rights in 2020 – WPT
FED’s Bullard says he supported the FOMC decision last week
Bullard: New approach to lifting inflation likely to work
Bullard: Fed will be much less pre-emptive about raising rates.
Bullard: May have enough fiscal aid in pipeline for recovery
Fed’s Powell tells Congress its up to them to provide aid to some troubled companies – DJ
Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnel said he will put Pres. Trump’s Supreme Court nominee to a vote on the Senate – RTR’s
AUD:
RBA’s Debelle: Lays out potential policies, no signals on timing
Debelle: Reiterates options, no change in priorities
Debelle defines the RBA’s monetary policy toolkit – AFR
RBA: FX Intervention a potential policy tool
RBA: Unsure if FX intervention would work at current AUD levels
GBP:
Second Covid shutdown begins as Boris Johnson prepares to announce new restrictions – TEL
EM:
Remittance boom is turning into a bust for Asia Emerging markets – BBG
JPY:
Bank Holiday, Autumn Equinox
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
0730 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
1000 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders A | C -40 | P -44
1400 USD Existing Home Sales MoM (AUG) A | C 2.4% | P 24.7%
1400 USD Existing Home Sales (AUG) A | C 6.00m | P 5.86m
1430 USD FED Chair Powell Testifies
2030 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -9.517m
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A USD day with the Cable opening just above the Friday close and filling the gap quickly before slowly pushing into the Tokyo bank holiday trading above the 1.2935 level and eventually breaking through to run in the 1.2950-60 level through to the London session, grey hour selling put the market through to the 1.2940 level before bouncing and making the highs just above the 1.2965 area and then the selling from the London open, the market dipped through to the 1.2850 level on increasing speculation of a second lockdown in the UK, and of course with experts saying cases will rise to 50k per day, these of course are the same experts that were calling for 500k deaths for the first wave so pinch of salt here. Having reached the 1.2850 area the market then traded through to the NYK session trading around the level testing lightly and repeatedly through the 1.2840 level before pushing to the 1.2870 area for the move into the NYK session and the second round of selling, not as savage per se but continual through to the 1.2785 area before finding sufficient buyers to take it through to the close holding the 1.2815 area.
- JPY: Opening around the 104.55 level the market drifted through to the Tokyo session lifting off the 104.45 low and back to the opening level before putting in a long steady drift through to the London session to test the 104.00 level a couple of times before holding around the 104.10 for the run to the NYK opening and strong buying quickly through to the 104.85 areas before dropping quickly back to the 104.50 level and again testing higher in a slower move before holding through to the close.
- AUD: Pretty much the same pattern as the rest with the USD day taking control eventually, Opening a touch higher to move from the 0.7300 area touching back to the 0.7285 area before running higher again on the move through into the Bank Holiday Tokyo session initially testing the 0.7305 area and then through midsession to test the 0.7325 level for the high of the day before drifting a little through to the London session, steady selling from the opening saw the market testing back to the 0.7250 for the NYK session and then renewing the drift after a short pause and continue to the 72 cents area before finding bids strong enough to hold through to the end of the day rising only to the 0.7225 area.
- EUR: Euro filled a small gap higher from the opening testing through into the Tokyo session holding the 1.1850 opening area before running through to the grey hour high to test the 1.1870 level and then a slow drift into early London and a quickly push lower through to the NYK session holding the 1.1800 level, further selling materialized on the NYK opening and the market tumbled steadily to just above the 1.1730 level to hold through to the London close where the USD buying subsided lifting steadily through to the 1.1770 level for the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
CNY PBoC Loan Prime rate A 3.85% | P 3.85%
CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (AUG) A 0.5% | C 0.3% | P 0.4%
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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