Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.962 | EURUSD 1.1927 | AUDUSD 0.75763 | NZDUSD 0.70427 | USDCAD 1.23053 | USDCHF 0.91824 | GBPUSD 1.39628 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.19335 | 1.19192

USDJPY                111.119 | 110.95

GBPUSD              1.39703 | 1.39511

USDCHF              0.91949 | 0.91819

AUDUSD              0.75796 | 0.75687

NZDUSD              0.70544 | 0.70342

USDCAD              1.23135 | 1.23017

EURCHF               1.09624 | 1.0954

EURGBP              0.85454 | 0.85387

EURJPY                132.564 | 132.322

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.3965 area and struggling to push through the 1.3970 level and eventually slipping away from the level to test towards the 1.3950 level only to hold in a tight range around the 1.3960 area for the grey hour, weak sellers continue through the 1.4000 level and likely stronger stops above the level with limited resistance through to the stronger 1.4100 level and congestion several weeks deep. Downside bids light through the 1.3900 level with stronger bids then increasing on a move through the 1.3850 area and into the 1.3800 level strong stops likely on a test through the 1.3770 area and opening for a deeper move.
  • JPY: A quiet opening then a steady wind up from the 110.95 level to press lightly above the 111.10 level for the second time in 24hrs before drifting back to hold around the figure level for the move into the grey hour, topside strong offers on any move towards the 111.20 level before stops appear however, stronger offers around the 111.50 level likely to limit the first move higher. Downside bids light through to the 109.00 and congestion all the way through, a push through the 108.80 level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market then seeing light congestion to the 108.50 and stronger bids from there on.
  • AUD: A very quiet session with the Oz pinned between the 0.7570-80 level for the session and remaining in the opening area for the move into the grey hour, Light offers through to the 0.7620 area with weak stops then appearing for a test into the 0.7750 area however, the area is likely to start to see stronger offers beginning to move in and building through to the 0.7800 area, Downside light bids into the 0.7500 area with stronger congestion just through the area and likely to continue from that point to stronger bids again into the 0.7450 area and repeating through the sentimental levels from there.
  • EUR: A light rise from the opening to push through the 1.1930 level but unable to capitalize on the mover and falling quickly back to the 1.1920 area in midsession to make the range for Tokyo and holding the low for the grey hour, Light downside bids through the 1.1900 level and weak stops on a dip through to open another run through to the mid 1.18 levels and stronger bids below the 1.1820 level, Topside offers into the 1.1960 area and increasing on any push to the 1.1980-1.2020 area before stronger stops appear opening another push higher.

 

 

Overnight News

AUD:

NSW Health recorded 18 locally acquired cases of Covid in 24hrs – TWT

RBA dismisses supply chain inflation threat – AFR

USD:

Infrastructure negotiators agree to framework for package – DJ

Rosengren: Expect tight US labour market for quite a while – BBG

Rosengren: Ought to re-examine bank counter cyclical capital charge – BBG

Rosengren: Expect most price increases to be reversed in 2022 – BBG

Rosengren: Expect most price increases to be reversed in 2022 – BBG

Rosengren: Financial markets don’t signal persistent inflation – BBG

Rosengren: Risks around inflation are heightened – BBG

Rosengren: Expect average hourly earnings to pick up – BBG

Rosengren: Inflation slightly above 2% next year – BBG

Kaplan: Forecasts first rate increase in 2022 – RTRs

 

Today’s Data

0800      EUR       Spanish GDP QoQ (Q1) A | C -0.5% | P -0.5%

0900      EUR       German Business Expectations (JUN) A | C 103.9 | P 102.9

0900      EUR       German Current Assessment (JUN) A | C 97.8 | P 95.7

0900      EUR       German Ifo Business Climate Index (JUN) A | C 100.6 | P 99.2

0900      EUR       ECB Economic Bulletin

1200      GBP        BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (JUN) A | C 9 | P 9

1200      GBP        BoE MPC QE Total (JUN) A | C 875b | P 875b

1200      GBP        BoE Interest Rate Decision (JUN) A | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

1200      GBP        BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

1235      EUR       ECB’s Panetta Speaks

1330      USD       Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (MAY) A | C 0.8% | P 1.0%

1330      USD       Durable Goods Orders MoM (MAY) A | C 2.8% | P -1.3%

1330      USD       GDP QoQ (Q1) A | C 6.4% | P 6.4%

1330      USD       GDP Price Index QoQ (Q1) A | C 4.3% | P 4.3%

1330      USD       Goods Trade Balance (MAY) A | P -85.73b

1330      USD       Initial Jobless Claims A | C 380k | P 412k

1330      USD       Retail Inventories Ex Auto (MAY) A | P 0.6%

1330      CAD       Manufacturing Sales MoM (P) A | P -2.1%

1330      CAD       Wholesale Sales MoM (P) A | P 0.4%

2130      USD       Fed Bank Stress Test Results

2345      NZD       Trade Balance MoM (MAY) A | P 388m

2345      NZD       Trade Balance YoY (MAY) A | P 730m

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet opening and early run around the 1.3950 level into Tokyo, dipping away for the move through into midsession saw the market basing around the 1.3925 area before starting a slow recovery into the grey hour and testing through to the 1.3985 level for the London opening, a slow drift in an indifferent early London session saw the market holding the 1.3955 level into the NYK opening before testing through to the highs to lightly move above the 1.4000 before dipping for the London close and a slow run to the 1.3965 level.
  • JPY: As with the Cable very quiet first few hours before rising for the Tokyo fix and then continuing through to the 110.85 area from the opening around the 110.65 level, a light dip into midsession before steadily moving through to test through to the 111.10 level on a light push through the level before moving into the NYK opening and dropping quickly back to the opening levels squeezing some of the weak longs out before stabilizing and then slowly moving through the 110.90 level again to finish just short of the figure level for the close.
  • AUD: Early buying to the 0.7560 level before moving beyond the Tokyo fix to dip back to the opening 0.7550 level and pushing slowly through to just below the 0.7540 area and basing along the line to the grey hour, a steady rise from the London opening pushing through the 0.7570 area, the market held for a couple of hours before starting to rise again for the move into the NYK session to make the high just below the 76 cent level and a slow drift back for the close.
  • EUR: Opening on the early highs the Euro moved into the Tokyo session saw the market drifting from the 1.1940 level to test just through the 1.1920 area and supporting bids for the London session rising from the level to move into the London opening just off the opening level areas, a quick stab lower to test towards the 1.1910, quickly recovering the market move through the early part of the session steadily rising through to the NYK session pushing just above the 1.1970 area however, that was the high and the Euro then drifted back off to push back to the 1.1920 area for the close.

 

Premier Results

JPY         Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

JPY         Services PMI (JUL) (P) A 47.2 | P 46.5

AUD       RBA Assist Gov. Ellis Speaks

EUR       German Manufacturing PMI (JUN) (P) A 64.9 | C 63.0 | P 64.4

EUR       ECB’s De Guindos Speaks

EUR       German Services PMI (JUN) (P) A 58.1 | C 55.5 | P 52.8

EUR       Manufacturing PMI (JUN) (P) A 63.1 | C 62.1 | P 63.1

EUR       Markit Composite PMI (JUN) (P) A 59.2 | C 58.8 | P 57.1

EUR       Services PMI (JUN) (P) A 58.0 | C 57.8 | P 55.2

GBP        Composite PMI (P) A 61.7 | P 62.9

GBP        Manufacturing PMI (P) A 64.2 | P 65.6

GBP        Services PMI (P) A 61.7 | P 62.9

USD       Current Account (Q1) A -195.7b | C -206.8b | P -188.5b | R –175.1b

CAD       Core Retail Sales MoM (APR) A -7.2% | C -5.0% | P 4.3%

CAD       Retail Sales MoM (APR) A -5.7% | C -5.0% | P 3.6%

USD       FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

USD       Manufacturing PMI (JUN) (P) A 62.6 | C 61.5 | P 62.1

USD       Markit Composite PMI (JUN) (P) A 63.9 | P 68.7

USD       Services PMI (JUN) (P) A 64.8 | C 70.0 | P 70.4

USD       New Home Sales MoM (MAY) A -5.9% | P -5.9% | R -7.8%

USD       New Home Sales (MAY) A 769k | C 870k | P 863k | R 817k

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A -7.614m | C -3.942m | P -7.355m

USD       FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

 

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.